The 2021 Election...yeah, I'm saying it.

Scott Morrison, like the majority of babies, claims he's going to be a "full termer" but like just like a baby, when it's time, it's time and it won't matter whether he still has 6 months to go or not. Presenting himself as a "full termer" is true to form for Scott Morrison, in that like most of his other proclaimations, it's just an announcement, not a promise.

Yeah, I'm early, but that's really the least of your problems moving forward.

In fact this one wasn't even an announcement, it was just something said to the LNP MPs last year and naturally leaked to the media for 'reasons'. We of course know that the calling of a federal election is one of those things that is based entirely on how things are looking in the polls for the government and how many things they see coming their way that are good or bad. There's no full term about it, there's a window in which you can call the election, but unlike most of the states, no set date. So once again, this is just another wish or desire which will me zilch when a decision is made...unless he runs out of time.

Much like any game of predictions, I've been moving back and forwards in my guesses for when Scott Morrison will call an election. Here's my thinking...

- It was never going to be within the first two years (irrespective of anything that happened) because the public don't like voting too often and would punish anyone making them do so, even if it's just a little bit (remember, they have a ONE seat majority, a little bit of punishment is enough to lose power)

This week sees the date of May 19th appear. There's your 2 years since the last election. We've cleared the first hurdle.

- Once the pandemic hit, there was going to be a nasty impact on the economy and for a side that reckons they are better managers of money, it was going to be a hard sell with a debt of one trillion dollars, unless you try to sweeten the deal before you ask people to vote.

The budget last week was full of tax breaks for people and band-aid fixes for areas that had been causing the coalition some grief amongst voters. Hurdle number two jumped.

- When faced with a pandemic and you promise to have the majority of adults vaccinated by October (as was the original claim), you're setting a seemingly arbitrary date for....what reason?

The announcements (surprise surprise) had this one as a tick. The third hurdle was in front of them and they jumped right over it, at least in their mind they'd jumped right over it.

It's about now that I think the LNP's announcement reality and actual reality start to diverge, and this is where the sudden planning for an early election begin.

We're tripping over the third hurdle. Vaccinations are NOT going to be done by October, even the narrative has shifted to the "end of 2021". Add to this the thousands of Australians stuck overseas, especially those in India threatened with jail and fines if they try to return, and Scott Morrison has suddenly added a new hurdle. It's higher than he thought it was going to be, but he's telling everyone it's not.

"It's the economy, stupid," is the next cry, because despite the claims of a "come back" and how our unemployment rate is heading to a number with a 4 in front of it (always easier if you're considered employed if you work an HOUR a week), the country is still being impacted significantly from a lack of tourism and overseas students, both groups usually pump a lot of money into the country, so when are they returning? 

This is a massive problem for Scott Morrison because the concerns for our safety in this respect are not necessarily down political lines. Some folks are happy with how we are, safe, secure and free of virus, whereas others are suffering because of the lack of tourism or foreign students. Their personal income source still hasn't returned and the worst thing a government can do is tell everyone that they are okay when they are not.

Add to this the little problem that several medical experts are now commenting on the fact that we, as a country, are going to have to open sooner rather than later and, well, the narrative of following the health advice quickly becomes problematic.

Someone just placed a Chief Health Officer shaped hurdle in front of Scott Morrison when he was announcing something and patting himself on the back for something about women.

What did I just say? Women? Oh shit, Scott had hoped that THAT little apron-clad hurdle that he'd kind of tripped on, knocked over a bit, but kept running past, had gone. But it hasn't. It's still there up ahead. Jenny is probably driving the family wagon up alongside the track in preparation for calling tips out to Scott on how he should jump over it.

But Scotty's making another announcement, so it's okay for the moment.

There are some hurdles the ALP will drag out onto the track that he knows he will have to tackle, but he's caught between trying to throw money at them so they'll go away (you know, women, aged care, and other bothersome things) and dismissing the message by way of verballing the messenger. A classic tactic.

ALP person - "Why isn't there enough money allocated for mental health?"
Scott Morrison - "We've given money to mental health, are you suggesting we should give nothing to people suffering? You're against people with mental health. That's what you get from the ALP, no support and no future."

The problem with that is that it is short-term political garbage. The ALP has their policies and they will announce their funding closer to the election. Anthony Albanese is not stupid, he knows that making Scott Morrison sweat is a good tactic and that it doesn't matter what is said between now and the lead in to the election, the funding announcements will come and the disengaged voters (who aren't listening much now) will pay more attention then.

So the window of opportunity for the PM and his group of incompetents is closing. It's a window that is surrounded by an awful lot of crap, even more rorting and, in my opinion, corrupt behaviour, all of which is moving closer and closer to the window. Scott Morrison still believes he will see the sunlight when it appears through the window, but with Climate Change not even mentioned or believed by many in the coalition, it's bound to be a hazy sky he sees with he eventually looks out the window, not to mention the collection of hurdles that will be caught on his feet.

llama
@SirWonderLlama